| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 04:13 PM |
Re: Irene will become a strong hurricane, I think
|
Quote:
yes I can...and I did...
the storm grows in size with every pulse...and the shear is about over with...and Irene is entering warmer waters, and she will be steered west by the building high pressure ridge...and she has already developed outflow characteristic of a cyclone...and now, when the upper spins and LLC all get together..she will explode...maybe today...maybe tomorrow...maybe day after..not sure...
but she will
Rick, to say that Irene will 'for sure' blow up is definetly jumping the gun. For one, it's still a depression, not even a TS yet. Maybe in the next advisory she'll be a storm but theres still a ways to go. Two, there's quite a bit of dry air around her and in front of the forcasted track. Dry air is not a contributing factor to rapid intesification, infact a I believe dry air helped keep Francis from 'blowing up' last year. Also, there is a upper low to the west of Irene. I don't believe its causing shear now, but the area ahead of Irene is sure to have a lit bit. This area could weaken, but it is there now and could cause problems in the future.
And one of your points, the warmer waters, isn't very valid. Irene is already in waters around the mid 80's. From any graph I've seen the water temps infront of it are only in the mid-80's aswell.