| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 04:36 PM |
|
Re: Still a TD
|
Quote:
Well, fortunately for us in Florida, the models are trending toward the right again. This is very bad news for the Carolinas however. That said, they are just models and can (and have been) inaccurate. Some are still maintaining that stronger ridging will be present near the SE coast by late weekend as the Alaskan Block occurs as ridging retrogrades west up there. If that were to play out, the Atlantic ridge could move in kind. So nobody on the east coast can claim No Impact from Irene. After last year, I am taking no chances. My supplies are ready......but we can always use more WATER!!Cheers!!
I think it's going to be a close call for the east coast of FL. It all depends on the orientation and strength of the Bermuda High 5-6 days out. Current model trends say Irene near 30N-75W in 5 days. After looking at the new 12Z UKMET and the 06Z GFS, both models want to rebuild and expand westward the Atlantic Ridge with the GFS doing it after 120 hrs and the UKMET after 96 hours. The UKMET is stronger with the ridge but both models build it west with the axis near JAX and 1024mb ridging to the coast. If, and who can tell this far out, the storm stays below 29-30N after 5 days, it is likely to be steered west or even W-SW after that point. If it gets north of 30N, then the storm will likely get trapped in the ridge and meander until something picks it up. Of course, this is a prediction based on todays model runs - why the models change so much is because of what happens upstream in the Gulf of Alaska and whether a deep trough sets up out west (thus pumping up the eastern ridge) or more zonal conditions prevail. Anyone from Miami to Cape Hatteras could be impacted at this point. Here is the 06Z track of Irene from the FSUmm5 model at 120 hours.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/archive/2005081006/IRENE.track.png