steve.. i really doubt irene is going to get florida. it has an upper low (the TUTT reforming) which is pushing it nw again now that it has some vertical depth. i'm thinking it should arc back to the west, then take temporary bends to the nw as the strength of the ridge varies to its north. i'm sort of scratching my head as to how the heights are being mapped by various models in the extended range.. they show heights in the western u.s. being knocked down... should be strengthening the ridge off the east coast upstream. if we have a hurricane there it will be pumping the ridge up anyway... if that works out... that would favor an oscillating track wnw-nw over the next couple of days as some shortwave energy peels sw off the shortwaves currently piling up near the mid atlantic... then the ridge should poke in near the va coast early next week and bend the storm back to the left on the terminal track.
i dunno... sum of my ideas is.. ne fl/ga have a very low probability of hit.. sc has a low prob... nc moderate probability. really more or less what the nhc cone would suggest, just with the track sort of mirrored over a line from initial to day 5.. possibly day 4.
you nc people.. if anybody has to deal with this thing it's probably going to be you. may be that peninsular florida caught up on its hurricanes last year, and now things are back to nc being the hurricane magnet in the atlantic. sad how many hurricanes have gone between wilmington and cape lookout in the last 10 yrs.. at least none have been more than low-rung cat 3.
HF 0422z11august