The biggest difference with this year and Floyd is we have such warm water temps off the mid-atlantic that the storms might not weaken as much before landfall as they move north.

It will be interesting to see whether Irene shucks the models that call for a northward turn yet again...for some reason, given Irene's history, anything that calls for it to go north I look at warily. Irene just doesn't like the term "north."

Being along the Chesapeake Bay myself (albiet well up the bay), I'm watching Irene's track very closely.

--RC

P.S. - Clark: Thanks for that great post about the models! That needs to be archived somewhere