Hootowl
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Aug 11 2005 07:55 PM
Re: Doubts concerning Irene

The last I saw the recons we scheduled for late tomorrow afternoon. Don't know if that has changed. I did notice the following when I checked on our point forcast from NOAA this afternoon......

LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-THU)...EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE
WITH A MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN. WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO HOLD
OVER THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD WHILE SERIES OF SOMEWHAT WEAK VORT
MAXES ROTATE IN THE OVERALL FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...BERMUDA HIGH...TO RIDGE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AS
WELL. THESE FEATURES TO CREATE MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW AND GENERATE
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.

These guys (our point forecast) are pretty much on the money. (I know they were last year - I depended on them a lot - didn't know about this forum then) I don't know exactly when or how strong they are depending on the ridge (Bermuda High) to be across Florida - but it could make a big difference.

Sorry for the long post.

Dotty