sailor... as per your movement take.. you may be right, but i'm reckoning that the center is still on the western side of the convective shield... the 300-ish track is probably good. as far as you calling it here to sc... well, don't think it'll make it that far west. the globals have been consistently taking irene too far to the north.. except for the euro. late in the forecast period they tend to show erratic movement.. probably because the ridge is building and they're responding too slow/jamming it into the ridge. if you look at what the ensembles show compared to what the globals are progging.. they're probably underdoing the strength and resilience of the ridging near the mid atlantic. if i was a bettin' man, i'd go with north carolina. the offshore option is probably #2... sc is #3.
other stuff... noticed that the increase in convection/lower shear values that have been overspreading the basin... an mjo effect.. are now getting into the eastern atlantic. that itcz wave near 40-45w has good convergence.. in spite of low amplitude.. based on the evolving pattern that thing needs to be watched. the high amplitude wave coming off africa will be a candidate in a few days as well.
noticed pressure falls in the gulf on the euro run joe b showed this morning. not sure which feature that's related to. maybe a weak wave responding to pattern forcing. have to see if that persists from run to run.
HF 0010z12august