Well everything is still on the forecasted path. Finally last night everything has come into place as predicted. Her midlevel center finally came down completely to the surface and is moving near 305dg ( on a 12 hour basis) with a current bend to 290dg. I expected the old LLC or vortex to move out of the whole system today and slowly head towards the bahamas, infact if you look at the visible a lone vortex has moved out this morning and is near 25.5N and 71.5W. Its just a LLV that was originally the center. I dont expect anything from this cause its soo small and weak.
Anyways Irene should slow some feeling the ridge but I dont expect a meander that the NHC predicts. She is caught in the weakness of the ridge starting tomorrow and eventually get pulled N and NE as a shortwave trough moves across the US.Canadian border early next week.
On a side note....the Nogaps again outperformed them all so far. The models including the nogaps have been seeing a low form over the SW Carribean in a couple days and move NW towards Nicaragua and Honduras. Not biting on this yet but its a wait and see. It will probably go into central america, if it does go into the NW carribean, it will be monitored for having a chance to get into the gulf due to the upper troughiness in the gulf.

scottsvb