Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Aug 12 2005 05:56 PM
Re: Irene Moving Northwest and Will Likely Head Out to Sea

Big question now is...is there an eye with Irene?

Evidence for: warming in the infrared satellite imagery near where the center might be located. Several microwave imager passes over the past 18hr suggesting a mid-level eye feature present within the storm.

Evidence against: visible imagery suggests it may just be a dry slot working its way into the circulation. Infrared satellite appearances can be -- and often are -- deceiving. The ragged nature of the slot suggests that if it is an eye, it is a very primitive one at best...and that it may not be one at all.

The jury is still out, but that's why we have recon going out there this afternoon. We'll know once they give us a vortex report as to whether or not the makings of an eye are within the storm. For now, though, it's a debate where I get the feeling not a lot of people are going to be definitively swayed one way or the other unless something drastic changes within the storm over the next few hours...just like with the motion! It's not NNW (and the NHC never said it was right now, just that it would be in 3-4 days), and it's not WNW either, in my view -- it's somewhere between, likely over the long haul a general NW motion. It's important to not get caught up in short-term wobbles and look more at the long-term motion.



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