TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005 (edited~danielw)

CURRENTLY...THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH SOME CURVED BANDS AND OUTFLOW EXPANDING WESTWARD.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT LAST FOR LONG. UNANIMOULSY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A RATHER STRONG AND UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER-TROUGH BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE DEPRESSION. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEPRESSION
TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. SHIPS MODEL FORECAST A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...AND THE GFDL THAT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS MADE THIS DISTURBANCE A STRONG HURRICANE...NO LONGER STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE.
DUE TO THE UPPER-TROUGH...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AFTER 3 DAYS...WHEN THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ALL THIS IS VALID IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THE NEXT TWO DAYS...

Bold emphasis added~danielw

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/132019.shtml