I'll agree wholeheatedly with Ed's statement. There's a classic example of this effect with long-range GFS runs with Frances last year hanging in the halls at FSU. Two consecutive runs, out 13 days, took the storm on over 1000km different tracks -- one into southern Florida, one recurving it near Bermuda. Even though Frances did ultimately affect Florida, it did so several days later than that projection, given the weak steering regime it moved into near the northern Bahamas. Needless to say, it's best just to watch things as they unfold and then begin to make preparations if it looks like it might impact your area 5 days out.

I've added another blog post to the front page about this storm. Highlights this time include...
* Why did Irene turn out to sea and not head into the US? (A retrospective piece with some educational aspects as well.)
* Where is Irene going, and how strong will it get as it heads out?
* What about TD 10? The models don't pick up it very well, so what can we forecast in the interim?
* Analysis of the overall pattern & potential changes in it across the basin, with brief comments about future areas of concern in the long-term.
* Finally, brief comments about Fernanda, Greg, and potential future development in the East Pacific.

It's pretty long, so bear with me through it please, and please do feel free to send me any comments or suggestions (or questions) via PM. I may not always be able to update on a daily basis with these storms, particularly given that this pattern of one or two storms at a time may continue for another month, but as noted in the preface to the posting, I'd like everyone's comments on the structure and timing of the posts.

Thanks everyone -- have a good night & good Sunday!