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As a practical matter I think that the NHC did not want to have TD-10 in it's current state effect their forecast error. Aswe all know the strength of the storm has a major effect on the track. As they found with Irene, they could not predict the strenght and missed the forecast path. Since this is no danger and not knowing if or when it will develope, no need to forecast a path what will be wrong. The "1st." models had the storm moving hundred of miles in a different direction than the current local. |