Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 15 2005 08:27 PM
Re: Bye Bye TD 10

>>Steve - I guess i never looked at JB's forecast like you put it...i always paid more attention to his landfall predictions. I like his analysis on the tropics, patterns, etc...that part was ok with me it was his landfall points that got me. You did put it into perspective......i guess i should get the info i need about the atmosphere conditions and then turn it off when he starts talking about landfall. Thanks for your insight!!!

No problem. It's a case of not wanting to throw the baby out with the bathwater for me. I don't want to completely knock his landfalls, because I have seen him outperform other forecasters and the NHC a time or two (Isidore, Lili, Cindy). But his value is more in the realm of "heads-up, look at this possibility" than in the "Dennis will be landfalling near the mouth of the MS River").

Anyway, the Western Caribbean is fairly active today. I'm wondering what, if anything, might come out of that. Some of the globals have shown some bulging in their isobars either near/on the Yucatan Peninsula or in the Bay of Campeche. That was a little less pronounced, but there is some persistence.

daniel,

Why would you want to delete any future posts about the remnants of TD #10? While it's fairly evident we don't have anything to even think about now, there is still a low-level swirl, and some of the models are taking an inverted trof toward the SE FL coast near the ends of their runs (weekend time frame). It's just my opinion, but I wouldn't want to stiffle any reasonable discussion about any potential this season.

Steve



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