situation hasn't changed a whole lot since when i left saturday morning. irene is the only system out there, and it isn't going to affect land.. and there's another system which needs to be watched in case it gets through the trough and starts deepening.
a'ite.. irene.. well, irene is hurricane #3. we've had nine systems so far this year and only three hurricanes... that's low. when you factor that three four were gulf tropical storms (two almost hurricanes) and that the two open-atlantic systems (franklin/harvey) were solid tropical storms at times.. it's a little more sensible. the ridge is pretty flat and sharp... so irene didn't work towards nantucket.. the westerlies north of the ridge were too strong. it's gotten about as strong as it can given the synoptic environment and will be gone in a couple of days in the north atlantic.
td 10.. has come and gone while i was out.. and should come again if it's anything like irene was. the declassification has been noted by several to be inconsistent with sheared t.d. 9/irene hanging around for days on end. this evening it's throwing a decent amount of convection in what are probably going to be <6hr bursts. the general progression of the system has been wnw since it's stayed shallow.. it should end up near 22/60 around thursday as the upper trough slowly weakens, and come under the influence of the ridge from there. i'd expect there to be a discernable low pressure area though it may or may not be a rated tropical cyclone at that point. i'd say 3 to 1 odds the storm will regenerate. some track models are poking it nw into the ridge in the western atlantic (as irene/harvey/franklin have done into progressively stronger ridges.. something to keep in mind).. others taking it more to the west near the bahamas around the weekend. there are too many variables to talk about a threat to the u.s. other than to say that it could be assuming it survives and that the ridge doesn't let it poke through. how vague is that?
mjo is working in slowly. the active convection in the western caribbean makes this evident.. as do the systems which have been developing further east in the pacific as time goes by. late last week bastardi was mentioning the lowering pressures in the gulf some of the globals were showing.. quite a few still are. in a couple of days there should be some disturbed weather in the western gulf.. is as far as i'm willing to interpret that right now.
fairly robust wave coming off africa... they've been evaporating with the sal and lackluster convergence. northeasterly flow east of the strong ridge near the east coast has a trough strung from east of bermuda to the ne caribbean. it's a sheared environment near an upper trough, but anything that works west from this area (or the td 10 feature if it breaks through) would be worthy of notice.
with the mjo anomalies trudging west, soi has been dipping negative every time it goes near neutral. the index should shift this week and the mjo wave finally become more influential in the atlantic. by the end of the month the 'wave train' should be going.. although right now we're only seeing waves activate further west.
so to recap.. td 10 regeneration looks quite possible, western gulf may trigger an invest in the next couple of days, and the eastern atlantic is quiet but should begin to perk up over the next week or two.
HF 0146z16august