Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 15 2005 11:49 PM
Re: Bye Bye TD 10

Just to clarify, even setting aside other issues regarding that GFDL run (i.e., it's only one run off an unclassified low, the model has been changing run to run, it's 5+ days out, etc.), that GFDL run doesn't bring the remnants of TD 10 to a 113 kt storm. The 113 kt forecast winds are at a height of 950 mb, so, according to the GFDL's translation, surface winds would typically be 15-25% less, ie about 85-96 kt.

To see that caveat, look at the lower left hand corner of the model run.

The former TD 10 still has a pretty vigorous circulation. My money is still against regeneration - looks like it has a decent amount of shear left to fight through - but not by too much. I'm surprised it's held on this well through the last 36 or more hours, but I suppose I shouldn't be in light of the shear-survivors that came before it this season.