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Just to clarify, even setting aside other issues regarding that GFDL run (i.e., it's only one run off an unclassified low, the model has been changing run to run, it's 5+ days out, etc.), that GFDL run doesn't bring the remnants of TD 10 to a 113 kt storm. The 113 kt forecast winds are at a height of 950 mb, so, according to the GFDL's translation, surface winds would typically be 15-25% less, ie about 85-96 kt. To see that caveat, look at the lower left hand corner of the model run. The former TD 10 still has a pretty vigorous circulation. My money is still against regeneration - looks like it has a decent amount of shear left to fight through - but not by too much. I'm surprised it's held on this well through the last 36 or more hours, but I suppose I shouldn't be in light of the shear-survivors that came before it this season. |