There is always some guesswork in tropical prediction, if there wasn't, we wouldn't be here.

That being said, I do agree that what we have going on right now is more guesswork than what you'd typically expect in the tropics.

Irene looks pretty. though I'm keeping an eye on it in case any of my relatives in Newfoundland are impacted. But I'm thinking unlikely, as the storm is being pushed a hair south of due east.

The Storm formerly known as TD-10 continues to sputter convection, T numbers stand at 1.0/1.0 again, and have held them for the last 6+ hours. Of note, the storm is a bit over 2 degress south of the last projected path. it also looks like it has one more major bout of shear to contend with before things could start to relax. if the storm can survive that, and the collapse of the thunderstorms (with the resulting outflow boundries), we might see something develop.

As a slight aside, I find it fascinating what pieces of information people think are more relevant and more apropos to the current situation. It's part of the fun and learning process from my prospective.

Take care
-Mark