Anyways, My idea of the sw carribean starting up tomorrow look on track still. Im going out on a limb here and only 1 model agrees with me and that is the Nogaps.
There is soo much shear going on with the upper low over the central and western carribean right now for the next 48 hours that any low will be weak. I dont think it will be noticed more until 72hours when it gets off the Honduras coast near Belieze and heads NW or NNW along the eastern Yucitan of Mx. I think conditions will improve for this to become a depression and possibly a storm. It could move then more wnw towards the western gulf or get trapped if it stays more e in the central gulf by next Sunday into Monday. A trough will dig into the great lakes and Ne U.S. late this week into the weekend. How far down to the S.E U.S will determine how far N it gets. First it still has to form in a couple days if at all.
With the former TD it does have a chance to get its status back but not till at least tomorrow evening and even then I think they will wait for recon to check it out. Again with trough coming down this weekend it should do the same as Irene unless the trough moves out quicker then expected early next week.

scottsvb