Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Aug 17 2005 01:06 AM
Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform?

Another item of interest is the energy from the 2 waves that somewhat came toghther near the Yucatan today. A big blob is coming off the west coast of the Peninsula. NOGAPS and FSU MM5 from 12z both close something off and bring it in near where Emily and Bret landfell. UKMET also closes something off down there right at the end of it's run. Results? Inconclusive. Most of the other globals want to spin some energy just off or on-shore of the NC/VA coastal areas around 72 hours. Whether that's a land feature or not is not conclusive either. Just a headsup for a couple of close-in events we might have to deal with before anything of African origin is back on the proverbial radar screen.. As for ex-10, it looks good to me, but I'd think it will be another 48 hours or longer before anything material happens down that way. If anything cranks, High Pressure is firmly entrenched over the Western Atlantic. Some of the models weaken it toward the 96-120 hour range, so anything coming up well could follow the Harvey/Irene/Franklin scenario.

Wait and see dude.

Steve



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