Td 10 is looking better this morning on the floater 1 vis sat image. Due to its llc persistance I believe that # 10 will come back to life shortly. There now seems to be a trend setting in with these small systems which is they are able for some strange reason to survive even in the worst environment when in times past they would be totally sheared away and never to be heard from again. Maybe (just a thought) thatthe shear this year iis not reaching into the lower levels where yhe actual llc is located allowing it to survive long enough to get into better enviromental conditions. If #10 does survive where will it go? With the trends from the eariler storms F, H & I we see them moving toward the wnw into the western atlantic to recurve around the outer edges of the Bermuda high. My personal belief would be that this one will do the same if it gets n of the greater Antilles. Reasoning. Climatology and the track of past storms from this season. This storms track may have a similar track feature to that of Floyd &Irene from 1999 if it get far enough w. However even if it does happen to threaten Fl I do not see it crossing into the GOM at this time. Future strength will all depend on how much shear will be in the area after it gets futher w. Just my thoughts from many years of coastal living in eastern nc. J.C.
there's a mix from the globals as to what happens early next week (i.e., depth of trough, amplitude and progression). in the next couple of days we'll have a better idea where the recurvature path/profile of system will be. as for these systems surviving shear.. we get those every year just about. i personally think they declassified td 10 too quickly... it never 'opened up'.. just got a weak/sheared convective pattern. -HF