Just as a heads-up for everyone...

1) The disturbance in the extreme eastern Pacific is the one that model guidance has been harping on to develop for some time now. It is getting organized pretty quickly and has a decent shot at becoming a classified storm later tonight if trends continue.

2) The activity coming off of the Virginia & North Carolina coasts now is the makings of that coastal low that some of the models are picking up on. It remains to be seen what it actually does, if anything, but there's the start.

3) I expect TD 10 to be re-classified at 5pm if the convective pattern at least maintains status quo for the next 3-4 hours. I hate to sound like a broken record, but I don't know why it wasn't reclassified earlier today. It should just miss the islands -- we can thank a weakness in the subtropical ridge partially perpetrated by how far south Irene has stayed -- but turn back a bit more towards the west-northwest from there. What it does beyond 2 days is still up for debate.

4) The wave out in the Atlantic looks fairly impressive, but it's got a pretty stable environment to the north of it's axis & deepest convection. It's also pretty far south and much of the energy is sticking back towards the African coast & Cape Verdes -- as the models called for -- in advance of the big wave they forecast to come off in about 3 days now. it's got a shot, as everything out there does this time of year, but not a big one.

5) The energy in the SW Caribbean looks impressive on IR imagery, but I think the bark is bigger than the bite -- for right now, as it is largely forced by divergent upper-level winds on the west side of the broad west-central Atlantic trough. As the EPac disturbance moves westward, this should pivot around toward the NW (and toward the Yucutan). Some models call for it to do something in the Gulf -- which we've already seen twice this year -- so if the energy can hold together, it might be worth watching.

6) Irene, meet shear. Shear, meet Irene. You two get along now, okay?

Full update tonight, if I get a chance...otherwise tomorrow.