scott -- ex-TD 10 has been flaring up convection every day thus far for the past 3-4, partially aided by some upper-level divergent winds, yes, but gradually growing better organized and nearer to the center. With a closed LLC, good low-level organization, and the convection over the center as of the past couple of hours (if slightly disorganized), it meets all of the criteria for being a TD. I guess I should put it this way -- if Irene was a TD for so long despite a worse apperance and worse organization, how is this one not? Granted, it's not the best way to base an argument for this being a TD, but I guess I'm just searchnig for a little consistency. Nevertheless, whether it is a TD now or not, it should get there soon enough.

native -- *if* it gets going, it is the feature some are showing to perhaps be a conduit for TD 10 to recurve. But that isn't a given at this point. As for where the system is in 4 days, that's largely dependent upon how strong it is, whether that low materializes or not, and a whole slew of other facotrs (including the evolution of the subtropical ridge). Can't really say right now.