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the problem with some of the models is that they have a tendancy to underpredict intensity, especially with small systems. I just saw the satellite imagery and XTD10 seems to be getting better organized, despite the strong shear over top of it (sound a little familiar?) I think it is still possible for this to become a minimal tropical storm in time to break the record for 10 (which is August 23) also, if anyone is interested, today is the anniversary of Camille in 1969. |