it's either at the diurnal minimum or in real trouble for the first time in its life. there hasn't been any deep convection.. just scattered stuff.. since earlier today. it does look like the circulation broadened some today as well. be kinda anticlimatic for td 10 to persist for 3 days after declassification, make us all expect it to regenerate.. and then puff out as it nears an improved environment.
i'd say the earlier near certainty of regeneration is down to a strong possibility. if the convective pattern stays weak for the next few hours the chances begin to lengthen significantly.
it has overnight to liven up. if it still looks this way tomorrow morning i'd expect recon to be cancelled.
HF 0028z18august