i'd be highly suspicious of the gfs output right now, as the different flavors of the gfs used for medium range forecasting don't agree on the upcoming pattern features... and most of the other models are way out of sync at long range also. if you want to keep tabs on that stuff it's linked off the page www.ncep.noaa.gov
click on 6-10 day and prognostic discussion for that.. the gfs and nam models can be found on the model analyses and forecasts tab, also.
all of the model disagreement over the forecast out from 3-4 days suggests that the pattern will be transitioning. my take is that it means that whatever tropical cyclone behavior we've been seeing over the past month or so will probably be replaced by something else.
former 10L's forecast is extremely uncertain. almost all of the model runs today have it moving through the upper trough ahead of it and continuing wnw/nw. there is that weakness in the ridge near 70w.. but it isn't much of a weakness.. and won't be enough to turn it up unless the storm is deepening. ahead of that is a ridge that various models are showing as persisting.. separating features below 30 deg latitude or so from the trough to the north. the trough's evolution on models makes me think that it will be strong but not very deep.. and will have some component split sw next week. this evolution of features favors ridging replacing the troughiness we've seen in the western caribbean and gulf, as well as lowering pressures at the surface.. most of the models are in agreement on this piece of the puzzle. numerous globals are also showing a westward-moving tropical cyclone in the cape verde region next week also.
10L is the thing i keep returning to. the convection went down earlier this evening but has returned some.. the realignment of the upper trough has increased shear once again. it has kept a low trajectory and should move very close or over the northern lesser antilles tomorrow night. a majority of the models favor its continued wnw movement... ecmwf, gfdl, ukmet, nogaps, etc track its vorticity or low to a position near the bahamas late in the weekend. nam has it stalled near 22/65 for days. as shallow as it remains.. if it survives the next day or two the consensus prog looks good to me.
whether anything stirs up near the bahamas/off the east coast with the energy cut off from the TUTT/frontal leavings off the carolinas is less of a likelihood, but these areas need to be watched as well.
i did think the basin would be more active at this point, a couple of weeks ago. mjo has petered out quite a bit before the enhancing anomalies could really take hold, and soi is oscillating near and just below neutral. still based on climo and the transitional pattern we should see an active span in the next two weeks.. i'd say 3-4 named storms before the month ends.
HF 0439z18august