Big Red Machine
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 18 2005 11:05 AM
Re: GFS 16 days out..

Looks a LOT better on IR this morning (especially when considering that it looked like it was on life support last night). Visible still not too impressive, but I think the odds of reclassification are once again high. Pending recon, perhaps 5 or 11 PM today? I'm sure the NHC will be willing to classify the system (even if it were to not 100% deserve it) so that they can get warnings up for the islands. Also, difficult to telll, but on IR still appears that the system is moving W. That, combined with the S shift in a few of the models today, perhaps increases the threat of a keys hit. I'm still not sold that the trough won't turn this puppy up before it hits land, however.

IR: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
models: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif



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