Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Aug 18 2005 05:27 PM
Re: Back To Life?

I really don't see the circulation at the surface there, Scott. I'm looking at surface observations -- of which there aren't many down there -- and it is very inconclusive at best. Winds since 1400 UTC have been generally out of the east at the surface across Costa Rica and Panama, with one station reporting southerly winds in Panama last hour...but another right by it still reporting easterly winds. Pressures are generally low down there, but it's largely an upper-level based feature with a very weak signature, at best, at the surface. I'd expect north winds in Costa and west in Panama, which we're just not seeing.

The visible satellite imagery shows a mid-level circulation pretty clearly near 13N/82W, but the low cloud motions don't suggest a low-level circulation yet. A lot of it again is forced by divergent upper level flow from the upper low near 15N/86W, and given the outflow boundaries coming out of the convection on the north side of the feature (and diminishing appearance on WV/IR imagery), I think this one's on the downswing -- for now, at least. You can see these convective features help spin-up mid- and low-level circulations, which might occur here...but I don't think it's there just yet.



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