danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Aug 18 2005 08:55 PM
TWD

Dave, yes I did and was preparing to post a portion of it here. Against my better judgement, of course.
Feeding frenzy will probably occur. But here goes.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2005 (edited~danielw)
CARIBBEAN SEA...
COMPUTER MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A BROAD LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS COULD MOVE NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH A SURGE IN MOISTURE ALONG 72W... POSSIBLY LEADING TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF TROPICAL GENESIS IN THE W CARIBBEAN. UPPER WINDS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IT IS AN AREA TO BE WATCHED AT THE LEAST.
bold emphasis added~danielw
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/182332.shtml?

**Note-A little over a week ago. The GFS was indicating a low intensity tropical system in the SE GOM on Aug 20th.
That was an extreme long range forecast...but based on TPC's comments it Is an area to watch.