Tallahassee has seen it's share of cloud-to-ground lightning this year...don't know if it's abnormal, though, as this part of the world ranks up there pretty highly globally in terms of c-g & overall lightning strikes. Lightning strikes are often driven by charge separation and ice content and I don't have any readily available way to judge either, unfortunately. Perhaps someone around here will do a study on it someday with the data...

The SW Carib vort max is perking up again over the past few hours. Now it's got it's shot for development (in the short-term; still long long-term is a better bet), trying to look like a classic case of tropical cyclogenesis: convective blowup spins-up a mid-level center, only to have the convection die out for some period of time. Then, given a moister environment due to the previous convection and a mid-level circulation to focus the heating about, convection rebuilds. The next step is for the low-level circulation to spin-up as a response to this new convective burst and the strengthening mid-level feature...whether that happens or not remains to be seen. It's pretty close to land, though; given it's size and location, the upper-low to the NW isn't going to be too unfavorable. We've seen two storms spin up like this so far this season, though both in the Gulf. Will this make 3? As Scott has said for the past few days, it's got a shot... Still do think the Gulf area is going to be better for this to get going in a couple more days, though only time will tell on that account.

Ex-TD 10 is firing convection again and has largely been discussed by HF & others this evening, so I'll pass there. The convection isn't all that organized and the low-level center that had been there for days is gone. It's a little behind the aforementioned wave in the process, but still has a shot. Less than 50/50 now, probably 33/67 if anything (favoring not developing). If all of this pans out like it might, Scott will have nailed it several days out...not bad at all.

African wave feature is ~2 days away now...models aren't as bullish on it immediately, but still take something across the basin (to varying degrees of intensity). They're trending further north with it, likely leading to any quick-developing storm just spinning fish and not getting far to the west. Watch it over the weekend...might be something then.

EPac wave near 90-95W keeps going in cycles...it's what happens when features like the SW Carib. wave don't take that next leap and maintain themselves over time. Still some support for development and still favorable conditions for it to do so, but think only one or the other of it and the SW Carib. feature will get going, at least in the short-term.

Have a good night, everyone.