well.. for the sw carib thing.. that's slow brew stuff. it's on enough models to merit attention, but they're all giving different versions.
if x10 redevelops scott did get the redevelopment window right (though it'd been arguably classifiable prior to thursday). now all he needs is a straight north track for anything that develops and it's score two. my take is further west... bahamas area. going for the split. it looks a lot better tonight... maybe if that convection can hang around another 12hrs or so.
the african waves have been shearing off recently... and in very dry environs. the synoptic environment near west africa looks to have improved slightly. better bet that part of the basin is ready to produce when a wave comes off and doesn't evaporate in 12-24 hrs.
HF 0425z19august