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Nobody seems to want to drop XTD 10, Here is my take on XTD 10, This is a MLC enbedded in the wave, more I think about XTD 10 is was never a TD only look to be one this would explain the ups and downs for the last week.
Dave
Dave, I have to respectfully disagree with you about old TD10. There was clearly a LLC intact for 2-3 days until about 24 hours ago. My take was that it was always a TD until yesterday. What possibly led to the demise of the LLC was the easterly surge of dry air that caught up to the system & disrupted the circulation. Overnight & this am another impressive burst of convection with the MLC near 19.5N-64W. Will it develop? Probably less than 50% chance but who knows. The latest 06z GFS brings the wave into the peninsula early-to-mid next week. We could use the rain on the west coast of FL.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Agreed...the rain has been absent this year on the coast near me. Most activity has been inland.
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Re: Tropical Wave north of PR