Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Aug 20 2005 09:28 AM
Re: Undramatic Pause

This wave coming off Africa looks to be building some rather impressive ordinary convection already, though there aren't signs of rotation yet:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html

I checked the models. Most of them strengthen or maintain the wave across the Atlantic, but then the models aren't very good at predicting unformed cyclones.

I also checked the SAL - it seems quite weak right now out in the Atlantic, and quickly dispersing:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8g10split.html

The biggest problem looks to be wind shear in the basin. It isn't super strong, but it is there:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/winds/wm7shr.html

This is one wave to watch in my mind.