TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2005 (edited~danielw)

...TROPICAL WAVES...

FAR E ATLC WAVE ALONG 19W/20W S OF 23N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17.5N AND A 1009 MB LOW IS ALSO ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. THE NORTHERN LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DRY AIR N OF 17N E OF 28W SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE.
THIS IS NOT THE CASE FOR THE SOUTHERN LOW WHICH IS FORMING SOME CURVED BANDS IN THE ITCZ WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION. THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR NEAR THE SYSTEM AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO BE A GOOD BET. COMPUTER MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE HAS A CHANCE OF TURNING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 21W-29W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN DAKAR AND 21W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE ALONG 68W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IS NEAR AND MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 63W-68W. HOWEVER PUERTO RICO RADAR IS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL ROTATION NEAR 20.5N67W WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AT LOWER-LEVELS CYCLONICALLY TURNING INTO THE CENTER.
THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/202348.shtml?

**note-I'm not great at reading the upper air balloon reports. Looking at Dakar, Senegal's latest report,21/00Z. This wave had a signature up to near 700mb. Quite Impressive on the Skew-Ts. This coupled with 23kt winds as low as 1800 feet.
Peak winds on this sounding were 36kts at 700mb, or near 10000 ft.
http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html