models are really perking up and showing some activity on the way now... 16 day gfs reads like a smorgasboard of tropical systems... so we're probably going to see the real thing again this coming week. here's the rundown (somewhat a rehash of concepts already tossed out).
BoC system: there is a solid mid level turning inland near the SE rim of the bay. convection is flaring all around and near shore... if it doesn't continue due west and keep scraping along the coastline it should have a solid chance at developing. i don't think this system will get distant enough from the shore or stay over water long enough for significant development.. but it isn't moving very quickly and the center could jump offshore. this system has the highest chance of classification the soonest. it may just be a depression based on proximity to the coast.. or more like bret and gert earlier this year. expect an invest at any time.
97L: globals pretty unanimous about developing this feature. it's not organizing quickly which is slantng the odds against early recurvature.. but they're still highly in favor of it turning up near 55-60w later next week.
xtd 10: i won't stop mentioning it until it goes away, and it hasn't. i doubt it'll ever be rechristened 10 due to the time that has passed and the changes it's undergone, but it is some vestige of this persistent system. the globals are showing fairly dramatic, pattern-forced pressure falls near the southeast u.s. coast.. and are developing low pressure near/east of florida btw tue-wed. the advancing trough is shown by some to yank it up along/just off the coast.. on others it is bypassed and drifts over florida during the weekend.. presumably into the gulf after that time. i'll briefly discuss the synoptic conditions around this later...
behind 97L: you guessed it.. a sort of wave train is showing up in the wake of 97L. gfs has the follow on staying low and approaching the s.e. us coast around labor day weekend... when the gfs starts showing stuff like that i like to stock up on caffeinated beverages for the long nights ahead.
pattern in general: had a blazing hot august day here, but a trough is about to settle into the east.. and lift out next week. the basin in general on wv doesn't look like the andy warhol psychedelic upper low trip anymore. late next week heights are shown to be building significantly in eastern canada.. the notorious newfoundland wheel is in place around the first few days of september. that kind of pattern in the heart of the hurricane season is very bad juju, as if you have a storm in place to take advantage of it... somebody gets burned.
expect the next couple of weeks to be less of the irene/td 10 type headscratching over weak systems.. and more of the traditional cv season action.
HF 0025z22august