the rundown this morning:
new 98L will get reconned this afternoon and will probably be classified. the core of the feature has moved offshore now; it should have enough time to get organized. joe b says landfall late tomorrow near tuxpan as a tropical storm.. see no problem with that.
97L is over marginal ssts and is entraining some dry air. this should act to keep it broad and fairly weak through the next 36-48hrs. should only be minimal development in that time. after that it should slowly deepen. a recurvature corridor will be open for it if it's strong enough late in the week. if not, it'll have a shear zone/upper trough to break through like irene did a couple weeks ago.
xtd 10 is what concerns me the most this morning. the outflow pattern is shown to be very favorable around it by mid week, with the rising heights in the northeast and shortwave bypassing it to the north, low pressure is likely to develop in this area. models tracking it either just east of florida, over florida, or into the eastern gulf. i was thinking about what jb would have to say over the weekend.. this morning his ideas all panned out like i'd expected. development out of this system will be trouble, and the pattern is evolving so as to facilitate that.
the wave behind 97L is shown by most globals to keep a low trajectory.. nao is positive now and should favor zonal ridging. in the two week period that wave will likely be responsible for what we're talking about then.
HF 1413z22august