first off, I dont think the people in Cancun, Pensacola, Cuba, or south of Brownsville will call it "nothing but hype"
second, EVERY YEAR we have a quiet period in August--in 1995 we had 19 storms; we had the seventh on August 10th and didnt have another for 11 days; in 1999 we had 12 storms, with the first on June 11 and the SECOND on August 19; 1984 we had 12 storms, with the first NOT EVEN FORMING until August 29!

Also, the peak is not until SEPTEMBER, and the last several years, the majority of activity has been AFTER AUGUST: 1998 we had 9 of the 14 after August, 1999 we had 7 of 12 after August, in 2000 we had 10 after August; 2001 we had 7 of AFTER SEPTEMBER, and if you remember last year we had 8 by now, with 7 more to follow after August. And last year had a long period of nothing mid-Oct to late Nov.

I am holding to my prediction of 16, and i think it is still very likely to reach 21 storms. If we have one more storm by 2pm tomorrow, we will be ahead of EVERY YEAR PRIOR!

now, as for the systems out there: TD11 will likely become a TS later tonight; XTD10/Trop Wave will not develop, upper winds are too strong; and 97L will probably not develop at all until the end of the week if ever--there is still too much dry air in the circulation, and the convection has weakened quite alot since yesterday.