i think it will be reclassified (as td 10 or maybe they'll just call it 12) tomorrow. it's slowly , slowly spinning up... looks to be focusing near the convective burst that has been going off all morning around great inagua (the slightly larger island in the SE bahamas). there's a shortwave ridge moving in from the east which should start to ventilate the area tomorrow.. today it's in a weak sheared environment thanks to that small upper low sliding by to the north. if this thing develops.. and it looks to be.. it's a big ticket item. most of the globals have it crossing southern florida into the gulf late in the week.
td 11 may or may not get bumped up to jose. the deep layer flow caught it as it developed and it's moving faster than the globals were showing (they tend to hang things up in the rim of the BoC anyway). should move onshore tonight, not tomorrow night, like the official says. recon will probably find winds near t.s. force. nhc likes to play these conservative. they probably won't upgrade it unless it makes a convincing case.
97L looks about like it has for the last 36 hrs or so. the center is near 16/33 and moving over marginal ssts/though a marginal environment; some of the dynamic guidance has it making a pretty dramatic recurvature near 50w at the end of the week. i'm not sold on that evolution quite yet.. with nao positive there should be a tendency for stair-stepping storms that feel troughs and miss them.. unless they're fairly strong.
that model-seen coastal low that peels out from the carolina coast as the current shortwave over tennessee moves off.. i'm more convinced it will exist than some of the other hybrid storms models have been waffling over so far this season. i do think it will be hybrid, though.. e.g. not a classified tropical system. globals were earlier trying to deepen it and recurve the old td 10 energy with it.. with the nao state it will probably just deepen and go.. and let the ridge push back in behind it a little.
HF 1855z22august