danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 22 2005 09:50 PM
Keeps Going and Going

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
122 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005 ([]edited~danielw)

VALID AUG 22/1200 UTC THRU AUG 26/0000 UTC

......FEATURE IN VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS...

THE 12Z NAM HAS CONTINUED THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WX INVOF THE SERN BAHAMAS. THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS
SUGGESTED BEFORE THE END OF DAY 1...BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING
IS SUGGESTED ESP AFTER 48 HRS. THE NAM TAKES A SFC LOW TRACK NWWD
THRU THE CTRL BAHAMAS AND INTO THE NWRN BAHAMAS. THIS TRACK IS
JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS PERHAPS JUST A
LITTLE SLOWER.

THE 12Z GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAS TRENDED
WEAKER WITH IT FOR THE FIRST 36 HRS. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z RUN IS
BASICALLY IN LINE WITH THE 00Z RUN REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT. ITS
TRACK HAS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT ALL THE WAY THRU 84
HRS.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html


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