danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 22 2005 10:46 PM
Models

Here's an interesting take on Models-Tropical Computer Models, that is.
The models are indicating Jose' to be near 23-24N/ 111-115W in 96 hours. No problem there.
Intensity models are in strong disagreement.
SHIP model is forecasting 102kts- over land and mountains!
DSHP model is showing 27 kts-most likely!

NHC has tasked an INVEST flight into the Bahamas for 18Z on Tuesday. With Wednesday's Flight tasking into a 'Cyclone'...indicating a Tropical Depression at a minimum.

SHIPS Intensity Forecast for the system formerly known as TD 10.
8/28/05 00Z-or Saturday Evening
78kts...SST near 30C...located near 23.8N/ 87.6W.
**this is an intensity forecast. Please refer to Official NHC forecasts for Tropical System Statements, Watches and Warnings


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