Unregistered User
Mon Aug 22 2005 11:26 PM
Re: Models

>>It will give you a better idea of the depth of the storm. 3-D if you will.

Also presumes that a system is stacked. It's pretty usual that with the US Generated model (GFS), various layers show vortexes at different positions where they don't usually align. While the upper vort-maxes and features are helpful for guidance and tying everything together, without a mature "stacked" storm, they're all guestimates IMHO. Using the surface plots and then looking at the 200, 250, 500, 850, etc. can help narrow down range of future motion and hone in on whether that model sees true intensification and to what depth. But ultimately we live at the surface, and if a model is correct, that's the weather we'll be seeing down hea'.

Thanks, Steve. Here at work, my thought train gets interrupted. You painted a better picture. I used to check the Sfc plots. Then I realised that you can have a shower at the surface without having a vortice above it. The opposite is also true. An elevated vortice may be present with out a surface reflection.~danielw

isaroni.. ack, don't say that word! -HF

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