earlier i was progging xtd 10 to reform tuesday... may or may not get that one. the mid-level vorticity and surface trough/weak low are still lined up, but convection has been spotty and jumpy all day. part of this has to do with the diurnal convection associated with hispaniola and cuba. with that wave approaching from the east and the shortwave ridge trying to build over it as the upper low to the north slides west.. the thing should become better organized tomorrow. whether it's a depression is more doubtful, but i'm fairly sure this thing will be a tropical storm in a couple of days.
away to the east 97L is getting closer to warm ssts. it's slowly becoming better organized.. should start to rev up pretty good when it gets closer to 45w. as before.. probably going out to sea.
jose is the third system to rapidly form over the BoC this season and slide westward. the area around tampico/veracruz is being pummeled by midgets this year.
HF 0453z23august