From the Extended Outlook for West Central and Southwest Florida:

THE COMMON THREAD TO THE SOLNS IS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE PENINSULA FOR THE PERIOD...SO SEE NO REASON TO GO LOWER THAN 50 POPS EACH DAY. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO 60 PERCENT CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR FRI AFTN ONLY...AND GO WITH SCT POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF GOING TO 60 PCT FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD UNTIL WE ACTUALLY SEE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.

Interestingly, the forecaster who wrote this mentions twice that the NAM model brings a tropical storm to the Florida east coast, but discounts it, as he is sticking with GFS for now.

The model runs this morning seem unanimous in bringing something across southern Florida. Which makes me wonder what the FSU superensemble shows, since historically it performs the best. Can Clark or anyone confirm that the superensemble is in agreement with the other models? Or does the superensemble only get run for genuine storms, and not mere waves? Sorry for the stupid question, but I'm still trying to learn.