Becky. No question is stupid. My Drill Sergent used to say that the only question that 'was' stupid. "Was the one you didn't ask".

That aside. Most of the NWS folks use the GFS consistantly...so when it throws a curve, like it did last night. They discount most of the other models and stick with the GFS. The NAM is progging a Tropical System in the Southern FL Peninsula area. So 1 out of 3 of the main models picks up the system.
There will probably be more than 1 Forecast Discussion throwing the NAM solution out the window today.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
All of the models updated at 00Z last night.
Be sure and check out the CMC model!