Big flareup of convection this am with SE Bahamas Trop Wave. Hard to tell but it looks like a circulation just to the west of the big blob of TS off the NE coast of Cuba. A couple of this mornings model runs are really scary. The 00Z CMC, whic has been forecasting a rapid deepening in the GOM once the system crosses S FL, creates a major hurricane in the eastern GOM and then tracks it north along the west coast of FL into the panhandle. Now the 00Z UKMET has jumped on board with a bombout in the eastern GOM too. The track seems to be getting better in focus with a closed circulation forming in the western bahamas drifting to the SE FL coast, across the southern tip of the peninsula and into the SE GOM. The 00Z NOGAPs supports this track. Yesterdays 18Z GFS did also but the 00Z GFS loses the system. All in all, gonna get real interesting the rest of this week.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation