[moved from old thread]

Ok, NHC is very late in getting their 5am TWO up...given that it is almost 7am now...wonder what is going on? TWD from about 4.5 hours ago says there is a new wave off Africa. Yet another one to watch! Plus a wave over central America and another out in the Carribean...in addition to X-TD10 and 97L.

97L - Looking at IR:
97L Looks VERY good. It looks like it has consolidated down to a central spin, and appears to have a comma-shape with good circulation and banding to it. It has also shrunk in size, no longer the huge blob that it was, it is now a much smaller more defined system.

There hasn't been a Dvorak reading on it in about 5 hours, but what the satellite animation shows is it getting its act together in just the past 6 hours. I'd expect a decent classification soon. This might be why NHC hasn't gotten their TWO up - perhaps they are waiting on information about 97L?

Models are still inconistant on the strength and track of 97L, but they should become better once we see a TD out there. Whether it turns to sea or keeps westward is still unknown, but the models seem to think a turn to sea is likely.

I'm going to take a wild guess and say we might have a cyclone out there today just based on the IR sat.

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X-TD10:
Again, the IR presentation is very good this morning, though I'm not seeing rotation to the signature. Again the models are highly divergent on what exactly it will do, with some strengthening it and some ignoring it. Again, once (if) it makes a TD it should get better model guidance. This is still a wait-and-see system, though I expect we'll have a cyclone within a few days.

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Any met: why have the GFDL models for 97L on both PSU and FSU been all missing images? NOAA has to be running the models or they wouldn't be listed, but why isn't there any data on those websites?