You guys need to not rely on the dynamical models. They change from run to run more so then the global models. I look at them for entertainment only. Best model to use (I feel) is the Nogaps. Others though will perform well with 1 or another storm during a season. If you look at what the Nogaps and somewhat combine the GFS,UKMET and Canadian and put a plot between them,, you will have a decent forecast. The FSU model ( not mm5 ) is decent as well. Anyways you need to look at the whole picture and enviroment data also to combine what a model might not see changing before its next run.
Right now with what could be TD12 it looks like this mornings burst might of given it life. Its burst was enhanced by a midlow over N Cuba and another to its NE. A weak low near 1010mb formed near 22.4N and 74.8W. Its movement is to the WNW with a bend to the NNW later tomorrow. It should become a TS in the next day or 2.
Im not changing my projected path ( although for florida it could go eigther way) but its going to be hard. I still expect it to be near Nassau later tomorrow and just N of Grand Bahama or 50-100 miles east of Verobeach, Fl by Friday morning. It should miss the trough and move back west or even wsw and cross the state late Friday into Saturday between WPB and the Cape. Could be a weak hurricane by then. It should move into the gulf later on Saturday between Venice and Clearwater. Movement will be slow. After that the guess would be a turn to the N and head up towards the Panhandle but that is more then 5days out. Further strengthning should be expected.
This path will be simular to Erin almost a decade ago but not exactly (of course).