So far, the recon appears to traversing the circulation in a counterclockwise manner, flying from the west side of the storm around to the south side now. I'd place the center around 22N/74W -- still somewhat disorganized, maybe not entirely closed off but getting there -- generally drifting WNW. A microwave imager pass from earlier today suggested low-level banding features beginning to develop; the infrared & visible satellite images are beginning to catch up to that. Still broad and overall relatively weak, but it's got warm waters and low shear ahead of it. Scottsvb's post a little while ago pretty much sums up my track thinking for this one -- maybe a bit further south than Erin 1995 and in line with the UKMET & GFDL runs earlier today -- with intensity still up in the air. Interests in both Florida and the northern Gulf east of New Orleans need to watch this one.

The first two reports I have from near the storm suggest flight level winds on the west side of the storm of about 25kt and sea level pressures near 1010mb. It'll depend upon what they find on the east side of the system -- and whether there is definitively a closed low or not -- as to whether or not we have a TD at 5pm.