This is not the place where you want a storm to develop... particularly with nothing to pick it up and throw it out to sea. do we know how long recon is going to stay out there? Because I think we're going to see a TS by 11pm, Too bad there are no Bouys near the region, and it looks like there are only one ship nearby. So, for now we have to be paitent and see how quickly things organize. Once the convection does wrap around this sucker is going to strengthen rapidly. The water temprature is too high, and the islands will only mildly interfere with the storm. Of course, so long as the shear and dry air keeps the convection limited, it'll be stuck at about a 5Kt strengthening every 6 -12 hours.

I also think it'll tend a little right of track then make the hard west turn. (though I think the center also could reform a little south under the midlevel circulation.... so in reality, I have no idea what's going on

-Mark