My Area Forecast Discussion, Immediate Bulletin
Palm Beach County and Central/South Florida
900pm EDT Tuesday August 23 2005

Please use as a supplemental Informational discussion to Official discussions and forecasts for pre-planning

As of the 18Z run of the GFS model...

As of the latest I want to stress one issue about TD#12. According to all the upper and low level wind charts and overall pattern for TD#12. AT this time I still am not convinced that TD#12 when it does become a tropical storm will go into the Eastern Gulf. In fact what I still see here is a situation that it may hang around over the East Central Florida coast and our area into the weekend. The steering pattern at this time seems to implicate that this potential tropical system will linger and stay more on the east side of florida and eventually be picked up by the weak westerlies and go north as we get into the weekend.. The motion looks to be slow and also a large amount of rain is expected in fact the GFS has been consistent in showing the synoptic weather pattern that it will be locked in over our county and Lake Okeechobee. Once the low center gets over us right by PBIA location Friday what this spellsis long term winds and rains and significant flooding potential.

Also there is a mid to upper ridge and high that will be over the Central Gulf of Mexico which will act to block the tropical system from going west and also a strong surface high over the Mid Atlantic States by Friday will also make this system a slow boat to China motion!

Repeat this is not in any terms lifting away quickly from our area......The low center gets to the SOutheast coast of Florida late night Thursday on GFS....this looks respectable to the synsptic pattern setup..

So in summary, a signifant rain and wind event for our area for over night Thursday, Friday and the weekend as it looks.. I favor also the northern track then the the southern track and also moving slowly northward eventually.

Progressive weather pattern in the U.S also will impact the weather pattern downstream and this also implies less chance that this system would move across the state into Eastern Gulf. We will not know this for sure until next day or so..but the weather systems I described here will support a lock down on this system for a prelonged period of time more than what I feel what the official forecast is showing. Hopefully as I agree that this will stay as a tropical storm. A strong one with rain amounts 4-8 inches easily and winds anywahere from 30-60mph range.

This system has the potential just as T.S. Jerry in 1995 and as well as similarities to Erin in 95 too but staying over the peninsula!. Potential flooding and prolonged winds at least not the intensity of Jeanne or Francis thank God..As far as Lake Okeechobee water levels as they released the water in the past it was a very very good decision in my view for this developing flood potential situation and we are not talking about small flooding we are talking about possible BIG TIME FLOODING!.

Not to panic anyone that is not what I am implying but now is the time to prepare for the worse case scenario..all essential services and agencies should be on standbye for the worse case scenario...only hope is that it stays as a weaker tropical storm not to give us too much rain...the waters offshore are super warm and convective bands will bring a deluge of rains...as we get into Thursday Friday and even into the weekend sometime at least Saturday...maybe Sunday too since if it does move slowly north it will still influence us with it's moisture and circulation being fed with the very warm waters off our coast.

Will keep tabs on this as time goes on but for now..I dont think there is more to say and much to change...just getting ready for a very wet and windy period...We can easily go beyond the 9 inches for the month of August as it looks now once this finally goes to our north after the weekend..as I see it..get ready and you should have been ready for this significant event for our area..tropical storms can give us major problemswith flooding as you have heard in the past from other places in the deep south from the past ears..Miami is doing a fine job in alerting the public on this system and made a good decision as to the extent and effects of this potential significant tropical storm that will effect our area...