Ok, TD12...

The system has definately taken on a strong Comma appearence - that would seem to be Dvorak 1.5+, with SSD is saying 2.0 about an hour ago. The IR signature is definately getting its act together - less of a blob and more of a tightly defined Comma shape.

Models are still divergent - we'll have to wait for the overnight runs with the TD data input. Right now most of the models were run long enough ago that they were using Tropical Wave data, which is much harder to forcast tracks for. This is especially important becuase GFS seems to be giving an erroneous Atlantic track...so we really need to wait for the NOGAPS, CMC, and UKMET models.

The 11pm intensity chart table gives the storm a 35% chance of being hurricane strength guesstimated around landfall time (48 hours). As stated in the 11pm TD12 discussion at NHC, "THE GFDL STILL DOES NOT EVEN FORECAST STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER... THE SHIPS MODEL STILL INSISTS ON HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM CROSSES FLORIDA..."

--RC
The rest of the paragraph...
HOWEVER... THE SHIPS MODEL STILL INSISTS ON
HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM CROSSES
FLORIDA... WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST WIND SHEAR AND OVER VERY
WARM SSTS. AS MORE OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS... BUT
STILL LEANING TOWARD THE SHIPS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A
LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... BUT STILL
CALLS FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM TO APPROACH FLORIDA WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.~danielw
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/240307.shtml