8am advisory followed by an 805 am advisory indicating the strengthening. that's some rapid update work. just looking at the system profile.. shear is going to be a non-issue shortly... the upper low is backing west of the system and now enhancing its outflow to an increasing degree. there is the issue of that dry air slot that has been impinging on the north and western sides of the storm since yesterday.. that should leave the system open sw by this afternoon. best bet is that the storm turns wnw this afternoon and takes a day or day and a half to slowly work the dry air slot out. think it will reach the florida coast around boca raton early afternoon friday as a category 1 hurricane. going to leave my al/ms as a major (prob cat 3) around late monday prog open for now... will probably correct this once the storm has negotiated florida if it needs it.
out to the east 97L is doing the multiple-center thing. never mind that it is probably generating near-gale or gale force winds in the convective region.. it is poorly organized now. the center that ran out yesterday is tucking back up to the convection.. another shot out overnight and is co-orbiting yesterday's center. models still recurve this thing unilaterally near 50w in a couple days. i'm holding my breath on this one.. the late period mid-latitude stall shown makes me think they're trying to bust it through a ridge, and that it will work its way further west. all it has to do is move slower than progged for the next 3-4 days and the ridge will build back, so i'm uncertain on it to say the least.
watch those convective complexes tagging along south and east of katrina. with mjo favorable there's the outside shot that they try to develop, or at least provide local weaknesses in the low level wind field that add jooks and jives to katrina's track. have to watch around the entire caribbean for such things.
the much-developed trailer wave to 97L is still getting some support, but convection devoid. it may activate in a few days, but right now is just a skeletal wave.
HF 1240z24august