| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 04:49 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
Quote:
O.K. What's this model?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/KATRINA.track.png
Is it any good? Puts her a little closer to me then ya'll down south...LOL! I don't mind the rain but I worry about her staying out to sea too long.
That's the MM5, which has done a pretty abysmal job of forecasting this year...
The move to the right out early next week on the latest NHC package is something on the order of 250 miles!
That's a HUGE move for a single update package, and illustrates that the models - and the NHC - really don't have a solid handle on this thing yet. Looking at the latest model runs it appears the NHC is splitting the difference between the UKMET and NOGAPS... there is a huge divergence between them. MM5 appears to be to the right too, but it hasn't verified this year on anything...... of course you know what they say about past performance and future results!